Investment Assets Performance Outlook for the Second Half of 2025
As we approach the second half of 2025, global and regional economic dynamics continue to shape the performance of various investment assets. In Türkiye, where the Turkish Lira (TRY) faces ongoing pressure due to persistent inflation and macroeconomic challenges, investors are closely monitoring trends in gold, silver, foreign currencies (USD, EUR, CNY), the stock market (BIST 100), cryptocurrencies, and oil. This article provides a detailed analysis of these assets’ potential performance in the second half of 2025, based on current market data, economic indicators, and insights from sources such as X posts and web analyses. Note that these projections are speculative and subject to change due to unforeseen economic, geopolitical, or policy shifts. Investors should consult professional financial advisors before making decisions.
1. Gold (TRY/Gram and USD/Ounce)
Current State
As of June 30, 2025, the price of gold per gram in TRY is trading between 4,186 and 4,227, while the international spot price (per ounce) ranges from $3,273 to $3,332. Gold remains a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. In Türkiye, the TRY’s depreciation significantly enhances gold’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.
Outlook for H2 2025
- Bullish Factors:
- Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing tensions, such as those in the Middle East (e.g., Israel-Iran conflicts), are likely to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to accumulate gold reserves, supporting global prices.
- TRY Depreciation: Forecasts suggest the TRY could weaken further, potentially pushing USD/TRY to 42–45 by year-end. This would drive TRY-denominated gold prices higher, even if global gold prices remain stable.
- Inflation Hedge: With Türkiye’s inflation expected to hover around 20% despite projected declines, gold’s role as an inflation hedge will remain critical.
- Bearish Factors:
- Global Price Corrections: Analysts predict a potential 20% decline in gold prices by late 2025 or early 2026, driven by a strengthening US dollar and reduced safe-haven demand if geopolitical tensions ease.
- US Monetary Policy: If the US Federal Reserve maintains or increases interest rates, non-yielding assets like gold could face downward pressure.
- Projection: In TRY terms, gram gold could climb to 4,300–4,500 by the end of 2025, driven by TRY depreciation. Globally, spot gold may test $3,000–$3,100 if bearish pressures materialize. Investors should monitor central bank policies and geopolitical developments closely.
2. Silver (TRY/Gram and USD/Ounce)
Current State
Silver has outperformed gold recently, delivering a 12.62% return over the past 30 days as of June 30, 2025. A 100,000 TRY investment in silver reached 112,620 TRY, outpacing other assets. Globally, silver prices are volatile but supported by industrial demand.
Outlook for H2 2025
- Bullish Factors:
- Industrial Demand: Silver’s use in electronics, solar energy, and other industrial applications continues to drive demand. The global push for renewable energy could further bolster prices.
- Safe-Haven Appeal: Like gold, silver benefits from geopolitical and economic uncertainties, particularly in markets like Türkiye where currency depreciation amplifies returns.
- TRY Weakness: Continued TRY depreciation will likely push TRY-denominated silver prices higher.
- Bearish Factors:
- Economic Slowdown: A global economic slowdown could reduce industrial demand for silver, capping price gains.
- Volatility: Silver is more volatile than gold, making it susceptible to sharp corrections, especially if risk-on sentiment dominates markets.
- Projection: Silver is expected to remain a high-return but volatile asset. TRY-denominated silver could see gains of 10–15% in H2 2025, potentially reaching 125–130 TRY/gram, assuming TRY depreciation and stable industrial demand. Investors should be prepared for price swings and consider silver as a complementary investment.
3. Foreign Currencies (USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, CNY/TRY)
Current State
As of June 25, 2025, the USD/TRY exchange rate stands at 39.62, with forecasts from Commerzbank projecting a rise to 42.00 by September 2025 and 44.00 by December 2025. The EUR/TRY rate is approximately 42.50, reflecting the euro’s relative stability against the US dollar. The CNY/TRY rate, less frequently quoted, is around 5.50, influenced by China’s economic policies and global trade dynamics.
Outlook for H2 2025
- Bullish Factors:
- High Inflation: Türkiye’s inflation, expected to decline to the 20% range, remains a significant driver of TRY weakness. The current account deficit, which widened by 12.7% to $41 billion, further pressures the TRY across all major currencies.
- USD Strength: A strong US dollar, driven by robust US economic data or tighter Federal Reserve policies, will exacerbate TRY depreciation against the USD. The EUR/TRY rate may rise more slowly due to the euro’s relative weakness against the USD.
- China’s Economic Policies: China’s efforts to stabilize the yuan (CNY) amid global trade tensions could support CNY/TRY, particularly if Türkiye’s trade with China grows. Recent data shows Türkiye’s imports from China remain significant, supporting CNY demand.
- External Debt: Türkiye’s external financing needs will sustain upward pressure on all foreign currency rates against the TRY.
- Bearish Factors:
- Monetary Policy: The Turkish Central Bank’s (TCMB) tight monetary stance and potential success in curbing inflation could provide some support to the TRY, though the impact may be limited.
- Foreign Capital Inflows: Improved investor confidence or foreign direct investment could temporarily stabilize the TRY, particularly against the EUR and CNY.
- Eurozone Weakness: Economic slowdown in the Eurozone could cap EUR/TRY gains compared to USD/TRY.
- Projection:
- USD/TRY: Likely to trend upward to 42–45 by year-end, in line with Commerzbank’s estimates.
- EUR/TRY: Expected to rise to 44–47, driven by TRY weakness, though eurozone economic challenges may limit gains relative to the USD.
- CNY/TRY: Could reach 5.80–6.20, supported by trade dynamics and TRY depreciation, but volatility in China’s economy may introduce uncertainty.
Investors holding foreign currency-denominated assets, particularly USD, may benefit from this trend, while EUR and CNY positions require monitoring of global economic conditions.
4. Stock Market (BIST 100)
Current State
The BIST 100 index surged 5.78% on June 30, 2025, closing at 9,948.51, just shy of 9,950. This marked the strongest daily gain since May 2023, driven by optimism around potential TCMB rate cuts and reduced political uncertainty following the postponement of a CHP-related court case.
Outlook for H2 2025
- Bullish Factors:
- Rate Cut Expectations: The TCMB’s July 24, 2025, policy meeting is a focal point. A potential rate cut could boost risk appetite, particularly for banking stocks, which led the recent rally with a 9.64% gain.
- Export Growth: Türkiye’s exports rose by 2.6% in recent data, supporting corporate earnings and stock market sentiment.
- Technical Momentum: The BIST 100’s close above 9,500 signals potential for further gains, with resistance levels at 10,060–10,817.
- Bearish Factors:
ross: Projection: The BIST 100 is likely to test the 10,000–10,800 range in H2 2025, provided rate cut expectations materialize and political stability persists. However, investors should remain cautious of pullbacks, especially if global risk-off sentiment intensifies. Sector-specific opportunities, particularly in banking and industrials, may outperform the broader index.
5. Cryptocurrencies
Current State
Bitcoin reached $106,268 on June 25, 2025, with a year-to-date gain of 27%, peaking at $110,714. Ethereum and other altcoins have shown mixed performance, with some experiencing sideways movement.
Outlook for H2 2025
- Bullish Factors:
- Regulatory Optimism: Positive regulatory developments in the US and UK could boost institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies, supporting Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Safe-Haven Demand: In Türkiye, cryptocurrencies remain a popular hedge against TRY depreciation, with local exchanges reporting high trading volumes.
- Market Sentiment: X posts highlight growing retail interest in Bitcoin, particularly as a store of value amid economic uncertainty.
- Bearish Factors:
- Volatility: Bitcoin’s recent trading range ($105,000–$110,000) suggests a lack of strong catalysts for a breakout. Altcoins are even more susceptible to sharp declines.
- Security Concerns: Recent incidents, such as a $20 million ransom attack on a major crypto platform, underscore risks in the crypto space.
- Global Risk Appetite: A shift toward risk-off assets could pressure cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins.
- Projection: Bitcoin is likely to trade within the $100,000–$120,000 range in H2 2025, with potential for higher volatility if regulatory or macroeconomic catalysts emerge. Altcoins may underperform unless broader market sentiment improves. Investors should prioritize established cryptocurrencies and monitor regulatory developments.
6. Oil (Brent Crude)
Current State
Brent crude oil is trading at $67.37 per barrel as of June 25, 2025, down 2.02% recently. Türkiye’s energy imports, particularly natural gas, have surged by 69.5%, reflecting high domestic demand.
Outlook for H2 2025
- Bullish Factors:
- Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in the Middle East, including Israel-Iran dynamics, could disrupt supply chains and push oil prices higher.
- Demand Growth: Türkiye’s rising energy imports and global recovery in industrial activity could support oil prices.
- OPEC+ Policies: Production cuts or supply constraints by OPEC+ could bolster Brent prices.
- Bearish Factors:
- Supply Stabilization: Recent de-escalation in Israel-Iran tensions and reduced concerns over LNG supply disruptions have eased upward pressure on energy prices.
- Global Slowdown: A weaker-than-expected global economic recovery could suppress oil demand, keeping prices subdued.
- Projection: Brent crude is expected to trade within the $65–$75 range in H2 2025. A spike to $80 is possible if geopolitical risks escalate, but a sustained decline below $65 would require significant demand contraction. Investors should watch OPEC+ decisions and regional developments.
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Context
- Türkiye’s Economy: Inflation is projected to decline to the 20% range, but high external debt and a widening trade deficit ($41 billion) will continue to pressure the TRY. The TCMB’s July 24, 2025, rate decision will be pivotal, with markets pricing in a potential rate cut to stimulate growth.
- Global Environment: Geopolitical risks, including US-China trade tensions and Middle East conflicts, will drive volatility across asset classes. The US dollar’s strength and Federal Reserve policies will also play a significant role in shaping global markets.
- Türkiye-Specific Factors: The postponement of a CHP-related court case has reduced short-term political uncertainty, but long-term stability depends on policy consistency and economic reforms.
The second half of 2025 presents a complex but opportunity-rich environment for investors in Türkiye. Gold and silver are likely to benefit from TRY depreciation and safe-haven demand, though global price corrections pose risks. The USD/TRY, EUR/TRY, and CNY/TRY exchange rates are expected to rise, making foreign currency-denominated assets attractive, with USD showing the strongest upward momentum. The BIST 100 shows upside potential, particularly if rate cuts materialize, but technical and global risks warrant caution. Cryptocurrencies, led by Bitcoin, offer high-return potential but come with significant volatility. Oil prices will hinge on geopolitical developments and global demand dynamics.
Investors should adopt a diversified approach, balancing safe-haven assets like gold with growth-oriented investments like stocks and cryptocurrencies. Staying informed about TCMB policies, geopolitical events, and global economic trends will be crucial for navigating this dynamic landscape.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions are subject to rapid change, and investors should consult professional financial advisors before making decisions.
